Текст бизнес-книги "The implementation of the economic cycle: freedom, trust, duty"

Автор книги: Николай Камзин

Раздел: Экономика, Бизнес-книги

2. Entrepreneurial risk

Entrepreneurial risk is the designation of certain aspects of reality, and any event defined in the mind of the researcher through awareness of its essence. The essence of a two-fold, due to the presence in every phenomenon of internal and external entities. The inner essence embraces the potency, possibilities, and vital characteristics of the phenomenon. External – outside this inner discovery, is what characterizes the part of its communication with other objects of the system of relations[14]14
  Спиркин А.Г. Философия. – М.: Гардарики. 2006. – С. 280.


[Закрыть]. Outside entity – a manifestation of the inner nature of reality. First of all, we are dealing with a foreign entity, and identifying patterns of similarity in our consciousness manifests the inner nature, which in the phenomenon is stable. Exterior is dynamic and is manifested in different «roles» depending on the surrounding environment. When the question about the essence of any phenomenon implies the definition of the inner nature through the prism of foreign substance. The urgency of the matter in view of the relentless dynamism of the external world and the various manifestations of it in the essence of phenomena, like the actor playing different roles in productions throughout life. Depends on the competence of the researcher to identify the essence of the phenomenon or the naming of the phenomenon as a new-found, original. The dynamics of the original and latter-day may be only a manifestation of it, but not the inner essence, constitute a basis.

Uncertainty of events and their lack of control, and if there is any factor set of circumstances cause the existence of entrepreneurial risk to innovators in economic activity. Characterized by a combination of opportunities to achieve it as undesirable and especially favorable deviations from planned results[15]15
  Тэпман Л.Н. Риски в экономике. – М.: ЮНИТИ-ДАНА. 2002. – С. 11.


[Закрыть].

«Neue kombinationen» of a combination of factors of production on the idea of the entrepreneur promises to him on enterprise profits, but at a different end of the “stick” of its activities is damage, which not only absorb the borrowed capital, but also potential future investors’ attention. With the implementation of enterprise ideas rationally use borrowed capital, thus, the capitalist entrepreneur to shift part of their risk and become a debtor, but this status is natural. Entrepreneur to implement the «neue kombinationen» borrows from the public, above all, money capital, which acquired the elements of the combination. It was at this point, the entrepreneur sells its own decisions and affect the materialization of the risk. Risk is the uncertainty of the situation to its stakeholders.

Thought J.A. Schumpeter that the subject of economic activity in its implementation appears in the role of the entrepreneur, the enterpriser’s role in reflecting the actual situation. The entrepreneur, who does not have the capital to implement their ideas, is in talks with the enterpriser, who in turn, anticipating the decline of the enterprise, looking for creative advisers. But each of them listens only to the competent interlocutor and opponent, and the criterion of the whole practice. Because as an entrepreneur, in the narrow sense, and for a enterpriser in a broad sense, it is important to the opinions of others about him, about his actions, since it is a favorable public opinion is a source of attention to the beginnings of an innovative entrepreneur. The situation is different from the enterprise, but is the subject of another study.

According to the theory J.A. Schumpeter entrepreneurship is a manifestation of innovation, the generation of «neue kombinationen»[16]16
  Schumpeter J.A. Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Siebentes Kapitel. Das Gesamtbild der Volkswirtschaft. – Leipzig.: Duncker & Humblot. 1912. – P. 4.


[Закрыть] factors of production. Enterprise along with capital is a catalyst for combination promotes their implementation and operation. At the organization of enterprise, an entrepreneur since birth carries the idea of, among other things, the material preparations for its implementation. To do this, first of all, uses capital, or borrowed his. You cannot become an entrepreneur, do not become pre-debtor. He becomes the debtor by virtue of an inner necessity, inherent in the development process[17]17
  Шумпетер Й.А. Теория экономического развития. – М.: Директмедиа Паблишинг. 2008. – С. 211.


[Закрыть]. Under development relies steady progress. To encourage this motivation can either own will, or external stimulation, duty, duty. The debtor shall be bound by the obligation of the lender, the lender authority arose from a loan to the debtor equity. Debtor to the creditor returns the capital to a larger size than received from him earlier. «Take someone else's, and gives his» to give it can either implement your idea and make a profit, or give their property. Rational to exercise entrepreneurial initiative, rather than deterioration of their financial situation, because the debt encourages the implementation of economic relations and their development.

In the case of error regarding his innovations entrepreneur, used his personal assets and potential are of the totality of which is absorbed as a result of entrepreneurial initiative. But this same set can be a source of entrepreneurial profits out of which potentially can form the purchasing power of funds for implementation[18]18
  Шумпетер Й.А. Теория экономического развития. – М.: Директмедиа Паблишинг. 2008. – С. 236.


[Закрыть], at this point, the emerging and potentially relevant to the realities of the future «neue kombinationen».

The modern entrepreneur and businessman, came together, an entrepreneur, remained so for decades, also occurs rarely as a merchant who had never been even a little entrepreneur[19]19
  Там же. – С. 174.


[Закрыть]. In the public mind these concepts are identical, but it is part of the risks they are diametrically opposed. A person is in principle an employer only if it «provides a neue kombinationen» – it ceases to be such when they established the «case» will continue to operate within the circuit[20]20
  Там же. – С. 174.


[Закрыть]. An enterpriser in the practice of embedded as an entrepreneur gradually reveals a combination of all the «weaknesses» of its implementation and minimizes risks. It does this by improving the mechanism. The entrepreneur and his innovation is only a theoretical identification of weak areas, using their knowledge and past experience simulates the development and implementation of circumstances acts in their own and others. Because enterpriser stream line its operations while minimizing risk, and entrepreneur by analyzing ratio[21]21
  разум (лат.)


[Закрыть] method of organizing a «neue kombinationen», therefore, its risk is maximal. The entrepreneur is also able to use the technique practical to minimize the risk, referred to as «risk – the management». Its mechanics is similar to the dynamics of interpretation. In the interpretation of each subsequent communication distorts the subject of it. Following the success of his undertaking innovation, and get enterprise profits. Emerging entrepreneurs interpreters, they heeded the external entity innovations on this basis, implemented a «neue kombinationen», again with some unspecified risk, and may have a positive result, but in a smaller size. Entrepreneurial innovation is introduced and becomes a business, and a method of «risk – management» is to minimize the risks.

Such a common training course «Master of Business Administration» means just education entrepreneurs – interpreters, businessmen, able to extract a grain of truth from the information society and the envelope with proper justification for their fruitful for investors to put into reality their «interpreted by a combination».

Based on experience, we can simulate in the minds of development, and after a time to compare the simulated and actual situations. The risk in such a simulation is important if the observed evolution of the situation is also an active participant. Participant inherent interest, the account which is in direct proportion to the development of the situation. Risk is the probability of an adverse party to a situation in which his interest is infringed, he will suffer loss. Thus, the risk, as the phenomenon has the following elements:

– Spontaneously evolving situation, and partly subordinate the will of the subject;

– Interested in an active participant in the situation;

– The possible values of the commensurability of the damage and the likelihood of certain developments.

Entrepreneur, introducing its innovation, expect success, given that his «neue kombinationen» does not have a specific practical expression of a wait, he cannot, therefore, as its active operations were seen as a direct damage, they would not present risks, and would have been a deliberate bleak.

Entrepreneur – An interpreter has in mind the potentially possible situation – the result of past experience, or his employer, or his attention would not be drawn to this combination, because the probability of corridor narrows adversity. Like the legal norm of organized «business» is regulated and gradually falls into a set of regulations, compliance with which ensures the success and, ultimately, becomes a «franchising»[22]22
  Stephen Spinelli. Franchising: Pathway to Wealth Creation. FT Press. 2004 P. 2.


[Закрыть]. In the framework of a enterpriser using commonplace factors of production of finished formula (combination) operates the enterprise with a moderate risk. In this situation the relevant transactions risk. It is in this activity economically active subject is urgently needed training received during the development of the course «MBA», business administration includes[23]23
  ведение дел, управление делами (англ.)


[Закрыть] action under, or the legal corridor legislation, or corporate regulations and instructions. The entrepreneur is more creative than individual performer, it is inherent in the freedom of innovation and radical solutions, and on the principle of «stick» to the ends of which are enterprise profits and enterprise risks.

Enterprise idea to implementation primarily intended to be part of public goods and cannot materialize without the capital. When taking into account the risk of most adverse developments is the loss of capital and loss of profit, otherwise the capital would be used in another «case». If the employer does not use its own capital and borrowed it, I believe, no doubt, that the risk associated with the preservation and capital increase fully in the capitalist, and the employer will only be bound by a set of commitments to his satisfaction.

Compensation for damage – a process, a complete enterprise -to-date in today's realities, at a mass default. The essence of entrepreneurial risk is the reputation of an entrepreneur, an intellectual who is listening to the ideas in the course of its enterprise has acquired a certain prestige, showing its potential. Unsuccessful innovation may deprive the trader investor attention, and he will have to finance their start from their own sources, or reduce the potential of their own enterprise profits. However, the cause of enterprise failure in any public sphere is not only the entrepreneur bug, because then the question of risk, uncertainty of circumstances. Analysis of the behavior of the major economic actors – entrepreneurs shows that the crisis downturn in the economy – is the result primarily of «wrong» enterprise decision. Moreover, these solutions are not wrong in terms of individual entrepreneurs, but from the point of view of society. As a rule, this «irregularity» appears on the stage of recovery[24]24
  Седов В.В. Экономическая теория. – Челябинск: Челяб. гос. ун-т. 2002. – С. 79.


[Закрыть]. After the revitalization of many initiatives, when the capitalists have provided their capital entrepreneur and expect it to return to growth. Entrepreneurs are at the center of attention, feel themselves masters of the situation, but above all, are obliged to borrowers that meet the needs of society. Enterprise risk is to determine the relevance of social needs that provides «neue kombinationen».

Entrepreneurship is a catalyst for economic activity and development in general. As a factor in the production of any «deal» begins with an entrepreneurial initiative.

Potential entrepreneurs like the movement of information is transmitted «case» of an enterprise owner – and interpreter’s remains relevant have a fruitful influence. If the economic sphere would only enterpriser, then eventually all of their enterprises, «business» will lose its capacity and will be the usual circuit with minimal risk and profit, in the end, and even subsidized enterprises.

Entrepreneurship promotes progress, spins the flywheel economic, but, of course, charges a fee for it – a part of business profits, other shares are capitalists and other subjects. Enterprise risk is high, which may become an obstacle to the realization of entrepreneurial initiatives.

A small proportion of entrepreneurs have a capital that can be used to finance its innovation, and funding the day, if it fails just lose it and lose this opportunity for future ideas.

It would be reasonable in view of claims against the enterprise profits of the capitalists and the community to attract and insurers. That is to innovate entrepreneurs need capital, as well as some additional portion of the capital, which is levied on all employers. Thus, if part of the enterprise initiatives will be a failure, the capitalists will receive compensation for their capital, and entrepreneurs, emotionally, to rehabilitate, will continue to generate «neue kombinationen».

This mechanism is not new in the professional field auditors, appraisers, court-appointed trustees operate their interpretation. Before starting to work a person must insure his liability to a certain fixed amount imperative, and in the process of professional services, as necessary, carries out additional insurance, if the estimated amount of liabilities and risks increase.

In this case we are talking about professionals specific areas of activity, enterprises are more than entrepreneurs, but the mechanism provides a practical example. It is also important and consideration of other risks could affect the expected set of circumstances.

However, despite the risks involved, these relations contribute not only the movement of capital but also the transformation into capital of money and goods, means of subsistence and means of production, transformation is possible when «two very different types of the commodity to meet each other and come into contact»[25]25
  Маркс К. Капитал. Критика политической экономии. Том первый, книга 1: процесс производства капитала. – М.: Политиздат. 1983. – С. 663.


[Закрыть].

3. Exchange rate

International economic transactions involve the exchange of national currencies, the exchange takes place on a certain ratio. The relationship between monetary units of different countries is the price currency of one country expressed in the currency of another country, called the exchange rate. «The main theme of economic life can be indirectly measured in money»[26]26
  Маршалл А. Принципы политической экономии I. – М.: Издательство ПРОГРЕСС. 1983. – С. 69.


[Закрыть].

Currency (exchange) rate (exchange rate) – price per unit of national currency, expressed in units of foreign currency[27]27
  Киреев А.П. Международная экономика. В 2-х ч. – Ч. II. Международная макроэкономика: открытая экономика и макроэкономическое программирование. – М.: Юрайт-Издат. 2006. – С. 178.


[Закрыть].

Exchange rate – this is not a technical conversion factor, and the «price» of the currency of the country, expressed in foreign currency or international currency units.

The exchange rate is necessary for the international foreign exchange, settlement, credit and financial transactions. For example, exporters exchanging foreign currency proceeds to the national as well as in normal circumstances, the currencies of other countries are not treated as cash funds within the State. Importer acquires foreign currency to pay for purchased goods abroad.

Cost basis of the exchange rate is purchasing power parity (PPP etc.), that is, the ratio of rates for their purchasing power. Purchasing power is the national average price levels for goods, services and investments. In the free exchange of the notes for gold and gold free circulation between the two countries exchange rate slightly deviates from PPP because of the mechanism of gold dots. The mechanism of gold dots – the limits of deviation from the monetary exchange rate parity (usually less than 1%) lower (at which begins the outflow of gold from the country) and upper (starts its flow). Monetary parity – the ratio of weight of gold in monetary units (coins) in various countries.

In the paper money circulation exchange rates may significantly deviate from the PPP[28]28
  Вострикова Л.Г. Валютное право. – М.: Юстицинформ. 2006. – С. 36.


[Закрыть]. In many developing countries and countries with economies in transition, the exchange rate in 2 – 4 times lower parity. Deviation from the PPP exchange rate is influenced by supply and demand for the currency, which in turn depends on various factors.

Exchange rates are published in the press. Typically, in the current information contained in the previous two quotes of the day and short-term forecasts.

Should distinguish between circumstantial and structural (long term) changes affecting the exchange rate.

Conjuncture factors affecting the exchange rate:

– The state of the economy (inflation rate, interest rates, currency markets, speculation, monetary policy, balance of payments, the extent of the use of national currencies in international payments, the acceleration or delay of International Settlements);

– The political situation in the country (political factor);

– The degree of confidence in the national currency at the national and international markets (psychological factor).

Circumstantial factors associated with fluctuations in enterprise activity, political and military-political situation, guesses and predictions. The exchange rate depends on how pessimistic or optimistic about the company with respect to public policy.

The higher inflation in the country compared with other states, the lower the rate of its currency, if not counteract other factors. Inflationary depreciation of money in the country causes a decrease in their purchasing power and a tendency to decline in their exchange rate[29]29
  Шмыкова С.В. Влияние ваютного курса на потребительские цены в России // Экономический журнал ВШЭ. 2005. № 1. С. 3.


[Закрыть].

The exchange rate affects the degree of currency on world markets. In particular, the preferential use of the U.S. dollar in international transactions and international capital markets is a constant demand for it and maintains its course even in the fall of its purchasing power or passive balance of payments[30]30
  Коэн Бенджамин Будущее резервных валют // Финансы & развитие. 2009. С. 26.


[Закрыть]. Rising interest rates on deposits and (or) the profitability of securities in any currency will increase the demand for that currency and will lead to higher prices. Relatively high interest rates and yields of securities in the country (in the absence of restrictions on capital flows) will lead in the first place, the influx into this country of foreign capital and thus – to increase the supply of foreign currency, it’s cheaper and more expensive currency. Second, bring a higher return deposit and securities in national currency promote national cash outflow from the currency market, reducing demand for foreign currency, and a decline in the foreign and local currency appreciations.

With an active balance of payments is growing demand for its currency from foreign debtors, its rate can be increased.

Economic importance of the exchange rate determines the need for its regulation.

Along with the market conditions, which include the effect is difficult to supply and demand for currency, is the dynamics of its course, affect, and relatively long-term trends that determine the position of a national currency in the currency of the hierarchy (structural factors).

Structural factors:

– The competitiveness of goods on world markets and its changes. They are caused, ultimately, technological determinants. A forced export stimulates the flow of foreign currency;

– The growth of national income causes an increased demand for foreign products, while imports of goods may increase the outflow of foreign currency;

– A consistent increase in domestic prices compared to prices in the markets of partners increases the desire to buy cheaper foreign goods, while the tendency of foreigners to purchase goods or services that become increasingly expensive, disappears. As a result of reduced supply of foreign currency and depreciation is domestic;

– Other things being equal, higher interest rates is a factor in attracting foreign capital and, consequently, foreign currency, and can also lead to higher prices of domestic. But the rise in interest rates is well known, and the shadow side: it increases the cost of credit and a depressing effect on investment activity in the country;

– The development of securities market (bonds, bills of credit, stocks, etc.) that make up a healthy competition the foreign exchange market. The stock market may attract foreign currency directly, but also attract national funds which would otherwise be used for buying foreign currency[31]31
  Суэтин А.А. Международный финансовый рынок. – М.: КНОРУС. 2009. – С. 26.


[Закрыть].